The Wizetrade FOREX Blog

Come see me on Opening Bell via TradingViews.com on Monday morning where we weill cover all markets.

The USD has shown dominance in the market again today...let's run through potential setups for Sunday night.

GBP/USD: The Long term month is now angling slightly downward but still finds no strength or stability.  It has been months since we have had a really good trend on this one. The Mid term week is second timeframe and lows are coming up a bit.  Prior low from the weekly chart that we need to watch for is 1.5832.  Granted, we are still sitting around 1.6000 so we have a bit to drop before reaching that level.  The Short term day has stretched into a gorgeous bounce and the 720 as well.  Let this settle and realize what kind of power showed up to break the range on the 720. I wouldn't fight the short side on this one and I would wait to evaluate the charts for active to swing plays.

EUR/USD: Long term month still negative and pretty. Mid term week is strong and stable to the short side. The Short term day will be pushing a day 5 scenario so please use caution in trend expectations.  While the angle and separation are great, you are already four days in. Please evaluate scalping or active trades in trend.

USD/CHF: This one shows up better than the EUR/USD with the USD strength that has arrived. Long term monthhas the potential to try and reverse the downward trend, but we will have to wait to see if it can build additional power to do just that.  The Mid term week is gorgeous with great strength and stability to the long side. The bounce on the day chart is also much stronger than that of the EUR/USD. A fresh 720 may give you an opportunity to scalp into swing long, but keep expectations reasonable if the charts show up...just realize that even though our day chart has angle and separation we will still be day 5 coming Sunday.

USD/CAD: Long term month all mixed up, no help at all. Mid term week is strong but starting to slow with lack of stability. The Short term day is massively overextended so I am dying for scalps/actives short, but you have to wait for the charts and keep in mind the greater trend.

USD/JPY: Still completely confused. Month=sideways, Week=sideways for a long time, Day=sideways for about 5 days.  Scalp this or try to play a break on the 180. Be Careful! Not my favorite pair right now.

AUD/USD: Last week I told you how much I wanted this one to fail and it has done just that for us but now we need to be cautious.  Month sold off a bit but not in a dramatic fashion...could easily come back up.  Mid term week still strong and somewhat stable to the short side with support levels around the .8750s The Short term day is still showing selling pressure but the overextension means that I would not be surprised to see retracement long soon.  If evaluating short side...try scalping or active.  If you are truly looking for swing it may only come to you countertrend.  Pay attention.

Market bulls could make an appearance today, and the AUD has recently weakened to where it is trading at the extremes of support and resistance within its pairs.  Look at the Mid Term ranges and then watch the little lights.  AUD strength will be counter the more recent trend, so smaller positions and nimble trade management is in order.  Bulls in the equity markets are needed, and commodity currencies may receive some selling pressure from speculation that demand for physical commodities may be reduced if a forewarned downtern in the markets materializes.

The equity markets are quiet from the overnight as we saw follow through from yesterday's selling pressure in the US spill into the Asian Markets.  That bearish sentiment was supported with BOJ Gov. Shirikawa comments that he would take whatever actions were required to provide financial stability.  As the European Markets opened the bulls came out with an open above the previous days close on improved earnings, and some optimism that the US GDP would show improvement in the US economy.  This ahs US futures pointing a little higher going into today's open. 

The USD index held strong to recent gains, but we did see the JPY retreat which means the JPY pairs moved higher overnight.

Care should be taken in the markets today as the World Economic Forum is underway with global Central Bankers and Finance Ministers providing commentary throughtout the day from Davos.  These meetings are open to the media, and various attendees do speak to the press at this event.

China's Finance Minister has already voiced concern about overheated markets driven by US carry trades, where investors borrow the low interest US Dollar to make investments in foreign markets with higher yields.  That being said, today's investors seem to be encouraged by better than expected earnings news,and the prospect of a strong print of the quarterly US GDP.

Currency pairs have moved in narrow ranges overnight (this includes the Yen pairs with a weaker JPY) ahead of the GDP post, so support and resist that defines the ranges could be easily broken once the markets decide how to react to the news.

Sorry all for the delay...spent some time out of town and getting adjusted to the thing they call daylight. :)

Here's a heads up for this evening:

GBP/USD: This one is still so indecisive it's like a roller coaster.  The Short term still isn't strong, the 720 isn't doing anything special and  your 180 still shows itself to be range bound even with the latest bout of selling pressure.  1.6100 is really the support level that you want to keep an eye on.  If it respects it, who knows maybe you'll come all the way back up to the 1.6250s and 1.6300 level.  Use caution, start active and build into swing if profitable.  Either direction works at this point.

EUR/USD: Definite downward trend established on this one for the Long term, Mid term, and Short term.  You are day 3 on this one so if you move in trend please keep it to scalping or active opportunities.  If it starts to climb instead of fail, I would probably let it do that all on its own...without participation on my part.

USD/CHF: Same thing applies for this one as applied for the EUR/USD only in the opposite direction.  USD strength has shown up, but finds itself a bit overextended.  Keep trades to super active/active.

USD/JPY: Key light for me on this one is the Short term day chart.  Resting only 80 PIPs or so off of lows, this thing really needs a burst of energy.  The trend has been to the short side, but the range is what causes our problems right now. Active into swing is the trade outlook that I would be looking for on this one.

USD/CAD: The day is very overextended which makes me want to short this one but the 720 has already retraced a bit so that may end up being a caution flag.  I personally would love to short this one actively, but you have to wait for the right opportunity and remember that the Mid term chart is still very bullish.  Be careful with this one either direction.

AUD/USD: Your Aussie is overextended to the short side on the Short term day chart.  This one has a 720 that's potentially bottoming out.  I would pay close attention to the 180 and whether or not it respects 0.8900 level.  Active starts on this one.

There are your Majors...don't forget that next week you will be able to catch me on Opening Bell from 7:30-10am central time.

Talk again soon!

Lindsay

USD News-10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

STRONG

Short                            GBP/USD                    1.6100

Short                            EUR/USD                    1.4130

Long                            USD/CHF                    1.0450

Long                            USD/CAD                   1.0600*

Long                            USD/JPY                     90.60

WEAK

Long                            GBP/USD                    1.6175ish

Long*                          EUR/USD                    1.4220*

Short                            USD/CHF                    1.0370

Short                            USD/JPY                     89.78

The values in the T-chart data represent the next levels of significant support or resistance with trade opportunities to these levels, or breakouts beyond these levels. The use of Astrid denotes key sustained support or resistance levels, or counter trend opportunities in the market.

Crude Oil is up a little, but still looking bearish today.

AUD and NZD will be covered on the Morning Edge.

USD NEWS – No USD News today.  We are seeing USD strength this morning.

Retail Sales data from Canada at 08:30

STRONG

Long                            USD/CAD                   1.0525***

Short                            GBP/USD                    1.6125

Short                            EUR/USD                    1.4066

WEAK

Short                            USD/CAD                   1.0460

The values in the T-chart data represent the next levels of significant support or resistance with trade opportunities to these levels, or breakouts beyond these levels. The use of Astrid denotes key sustained support or resistance levels, or counter trend opportunities in the market.

USD NEWS – 08:30 Weekly Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

STRONG

Short                            GBP/USD                    1.6125

Short                            EUR/USD                    1.4000*

Long                            USD/CHF                    1.0510*

Long                            USD/CAD                   1.0525

WEAK

Long*                          GBP/USD                    1.6200

Gold Prices continue to retreat which could provide support for a stronger USD.

The values in the T-chart data represent the next levels of significant support or resistance with trade opportunities to these levels, or breakouts beyond these levels. The use of Astrid denotes key sustained support or resistance levels, or counter trend opportunities in the market.

Alright Folks,

Let's get focused on the Majors:

GBP/USD: This thing is all kinds of confused. Long term sideways for months, Mid term that was strong to the high side is slowing down, 1.62 ballpark is the low end on the Short term range with a 1.6375/1.64 level as resistance on the day chart.  Due to a lack of true direction, please focus on super active or active trades.  Any of these trades may grow into swing and either direction is plausible due to the sidestepping this pair is doing.

EUR/USD: Holding low. The trend short is still intact.  Your Long term is still short but a little shallow, you have a Mid Term that is a Fresh cross without stability and a day and 720 that are a little overextended.  The thing about this one is that it isn't retracing much at all on this drop so simply realize that the trend is present and keep opportunities tight start super active and active stretch only if profit continues to increase.

USD/CHF: Long term is positive but very converged.  Mid term is a Fresh Cross/Alligator mouth just like the EUR/USD but of course to the long side.  Short term and 720 both overextended as well.  Please approach the trend in a super active/active mindset.

USD/JPY: This one is all mixed up on the bigger lights.  I would use the 180 as a key light and right now it is trying to pop up.  If it is allowed to push higher it might be an opportunity for the USD to play catch up in this pair. The caution flag for this one for me is the Short term day chart as you are rather weak at the moment and already 3 days in.  Don't demand a swing to the long side...active perspective.  However, if a failure starts to occur and you have short side charts/strength you might be able to get a day 0 into day 1 swing out of the deal.

AUD/USD: Short term day range broke down a bit for us which is what we've been wanting and watching for the last few days.  The Short term and 720 are looking a little weak due to a healthy retracement after massive overextension on the 180.  The retracement was healthy which means if you find solid short side charts you may be able to stretch an active trade a little bit farther.  Keep an eye out though...if we can't break down the 0.9075 level then we may see a long side trend reversal on the 180.

USD/CAD: We talked about the prep for long side opportunity on this one in a blog at the beginning of the week and it delivered and just kept going.  An overextended 720 is causing the day to be lackluster.  Due to overextenstions I wouldn't put my mindset in Swing trade mode, but the short retracement we've already seen could enable some nice actives to the long side.

Those are your majors!!

Wishing you all the PIPs you can handle!

See you tonight on Late Nights with Lindsay...don't forget...only two more shows and then we're moving back to the daylight! :)

Lindsay

Yesterday I gave you a heads up on Short side potential for the AUD/USD, Long side potential for the USD/CHF, and swing style break for the EUR/USD.  If you were with me last night/early this morning on Late Nights with Lindsay then you were definitely prepared for the AUD/USD short and we watched the beginning of the USD strong swing for the EUR/USD and USD/CHF.

Tonight it took only 2 minutes for the EUR/USD to fail almost 100 PIPs!! The markets went nuts. It's been rather slow since then, but we definitely have something to watch with USD strength now rejuvenating its interest.

Watch the USD/JPY tonight as it only has a daily range thus far of 19 PIPs compared to many others that have already achieved over 100 thanks to those 2 minutes.

The CAD/JPY is worth watching as it has a wedge on the 720 Minute light.

The EUR/GBP is massively overextended on the 720 and Short term day.  Trend is still intact, but you may be aware potential retracement in the next couple of days.

The GBP is trying to hold its strength when compared to the failure of most currencies against the USD.  The 720 at this time is quite shallow, which could allow for additional rally on the part of the GBP.  However it is all up to the Day...pay attention to your range on the Short Term chart.

We'll talk more detail tonight on Late Nights with Lindsay...see you there!

Lindsay