The Wizetrade FOREX Blog

USD News

STRONG

Short***                      GBP/USD                    1.6540 

Long                            USD/CAD                   1.1650

Long                            USD/CHF                    1.0840

Long                            USD/JPY                     96.50

WEAK

Long                            GBP/USD                    1.6743

Long                            EUR/USD                    1.4177

Short                            USD/CAD                   1.1450

Short                            USD/CHF                    1.0775

Long                            AUD/USD                   .8240

Long                            NZD/USD                   .6600*

Short                            USD/JPY                     95.00*

*** GBP weakened overnight on much worse than expected Current Account creating a strong overnight move.

* The USD/JPY is respecting Support & Resistance, so we are actually looking to see if the pair can break out of the current range.

* The NZD/USD is approaching a significant resistance level, but bullishness could continue to carry the pair.

It is the end of the 2^nd Quarter, and often this will influence fund managers to make trades to dress up the funds, so this could provide some additional buying pressure in the equity markets.  Market optimism about recovery is still the buzz in the financial papers as well.

Note: The values presented in the T-Chart represent the next major area of Support or Resistance, and the opportunities may be to these levels, or may provide additional trading opportunities on breakout beyond these levels.

Eye on Exotics for Tuesday 06302009

GBP/AUD

This morning we have our eye on the GBP/AUD as data from the U.K. on Current Account reflected a stronger contraction in the economy than estimated, taking the shine of the GBP.

The GBP was dealt a blow as the previous reports data was revised down from a contraction of -7.6 B to – 8.8 B pounds, and the forecast that was looking for the deficit to narrow to -6.5 B was disappointed when the number came in at -8.5 B reflecting an even broader deficit in the current account.

Adding to the selling pressure for the pair is the AUD strengthening with buying in the equity markets.

Most of the Asian markets reflected a willingness by equity investors to take on additional risk.  Early European trading started strong and rolled flat, and the U.S. Index Futures are trying to move higher as we wrap-up the 2^nd quarter.

Let’s take a look at the charts and find support for this pair.

This pair has been stalling at 2.0400 this morning, but continues to try and break support to test down to 2.0320, and then we will see if the pair can move beyond to open things up on the short side.

We need to see some buying pressure in the equity markets today to give us what we are looking for, so watch the equities after the open bell.

USD Strength or Weakness, No news today, Watch Equities

STRONG

Long                USD/CAD       1.1637

WEAK

Long                GBP/USD        1.6600/1.6660

Long                EUR/USD        1.4120/1.4140

Long                NZD/USD       .6500/.6600*

Long                AUD/USD       .8120

Short                USD/JPY         94.90                           caution “could BOJ intervene?”

Note: The values presented in the T-Chart represent the next major area of Support or Resistance, and the opportunities may be to these levels, or may provide additional trading opportunities on breakout beyond these levels.

We are looking for breakouts, but smaller positions - cautioned today.  Breakout points could fail.

USD News – 08:30 ET Personal Consumption, Income, & Spending

STRONG

Long*              USD/CHF        1.0900

Long                USD/CAD       1.1500

WEAK

Long                GBP/USD        1.6600 / 1.6660

Long                EUR/USD        1.4140

Long                AUD/USD       .8100

Long                NZD/USD       .6200***

• Counter trend on CHF.  Not willing to short the USD/CHF since the SNB has proven that is will intervene to keep the CHF weak.
• Values for EUR and GBP are breaks of resist as USD is weak, even with the US Index Futures a little lower this morning.
• China again making noise about the IMF providing a world currency.  This can work against USD strength.

Note: The values presented in the T-Chart represent the next major area of Support or Resistance, and the opportunities may be to these levels, or may provide additional trading opportunities on breakout beyond these levels.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Support and Resistance AM

Pair              Support                  Resistance           Morning Trend

GBP/USD      1.6445 /1.6370       1.6515 /1.6602       Strong

EUR/USD      1.4015 / 1.3980      1.4140/ 1.4175       Strong

USD/CHF      1.0850 / 1.0800      1.0900 / 1.0945      Weak

USD/JPY       95.10 / 94.50          96.00 /96.60          Weak

USD/CAD     1.1400 / 1.1365      1.1540 / 1.1640      Weak

AUD/USD     0.7790 / 0.7910      0.8080 / 0.8120      Flat

NZD/USD      0.6415 / 0.6345      0.6485 / 0.6590      Flat

EUR/GBP      0.8500 / 0.8475      0.8570 / 0.8605      Flat

08:00 ET on Friday Morning – Dhigbee

Overnight the Asian session was modestly higher after the bull rally in the US markets yesterday.  The European markets got off to a good start, but have faded back to flat ahead of the open bell in the US, and the US futures are down slightly well in advance of the open bell.

The USD relation to the equity markets seems to be disconnected as we continued to see some USD weakness this morning even as the equity markets pulled back in Europe.  China may be helping the USD weakness by again talking about a world currency with the IMF.

We have news at 08:30 this morning for the USD – Personal Consumption, Spending, & Income.

See the T-Chart on Blog Post.

USD News –

STRONG

Short GBP/USD 1.6200***

Short EUR/USD 1.3920

Long USD/CHF 1.1800

Long USD/CHF 1.1020

WEAK

Long EUR/USD 1.4000*

Note: The values presented in the T-Chart represent the next major area of Support or Resistance, and the opportunities may be to these levels, or may provide additional trading opportunities on breakout beyond these levels.

The article below illustrates the Bank of Canada's commitment to maintain .25% Interest until they see signs of marked improvement in the Canadian and U.S. Economies.

Carney: Canada's downturn has become as deep as that in U.S.

Bloomberg News  Published: Wednesday, June 24, 2009

USD News – 14:15 ET Fed statements

STRONG

Short*              EUR/USD        1.4000

Long                USD/CAD       1.1580

Long                USD/CHF        1.0900***

Short*              AUD/USD       .7900

WEAK

Long                GBP/USD        1.6660***

Long                EUR/USD        1.4177

Long                AUD/USD       .8020 / .8100

If you missed the analysis about potential market reaction with the Fed Rate and statement this afternoon, please take the time to review “On Demand”.  Commentary is on the USD/CAD and the relation of the USD to commodities.

The Swiss National Bank manipulated the CHF again this morning - EUR/CHF jumped 280 pips.

Note: The values presented in the T-Chart represent the next major area of Support or Resistance, and the opportunities may be to these levels, or may provide additional trading opportunities on breakout beyond these levels.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Support and Resistance AM

Pair              Support                  Resistance           Morning Trend

GBP/USD      1.6205 /1.6185       1.6335 /1.6350       Flat

EUR/USD      1.3830 / 1.3750      1.4000/ 1.4175       Strong

USD/CHF      1.0650 / 1.0600      1.0760 / 1.0900      Weak

USD/JPY       95.00 / 94.50                   95.85 /97.20          Flat

USD/CAD     1.1450 / 1.1365      1.1555 / 1.1580      Weak

AUD/USD     0.7790 / 0.7910      0.7900 / 0.8020      Strong

NZD/USD      0.6365 / 0.6300      0.6440 / 0.6470      Flat

EUR/GBP      0.8460 / 0.8420      0.8500 / 0.8530      Weak

09:00 ET on Monday Morning – Dhigbee

The US trading session is starting the day a little stronger which is providing support for the EUR with favorable news overnight, and it is placing some selling pressure on the USD.

News out at 10:00 am ET with Existing Home Sales could set the direction for the equity markets today.

USD News

STRONG

Short                GBP/USD        1.6200***

Short                EUR/USD        1.3800*

Short                AUD/USD       .7800

Long                USD/CAD       1.1580

WEAK

Long                GBP/USD        1.6450

Long                EUR/USD        1.4000*

Short                USD/CHF        1.0750

Long                AUD/USD       .7920

Short                USD/CAD       1.1500

Note: The values presented in the T-Chart represent the next major area of Support or Resistance, and the opportunities may be to these levels, or may provide additional trading opportunities on breakout beyond these levels.