The Wizetrade FOREX Blog

Friday, May 29, 2009

Support and Resistance AM

 

 

Pair              Support                  Resistance           Morning Trend

 

GBP/USD      1.6100 /1.6000       1.6185 /1.62000     Strong

 

EUR/USD      1.4050 / 1.4000      1.4135/ 1.4300       Strong

 

USD/CHF      1.0700 / 1.0600      1.0825 / 1.0900      Weak

 

USD/JPY       95.50 / 95.00                   96.50 /97.00          Weak

 

USD/CAD     1.0885 / 1.0820      1.1100 / 1.1200     Weak

 

AUD/USD     0.7880 / 0.7800      0.8000 / 0.8050      Strong

 

NZD/USD      0.6200 / 0.6120      0.6385 / 0.6400      Strong

 

EUR/GBP      0.8665 / 0.8640      0.8750 / 0.8785      Strong

 

08:30 ET on Friday Morning – Dhigbee

 

Morning Edge Chart of the Day is the

 

The Preliminary GDP for US out this morning at 08:30 ET.  Expectation is that this may be less negative which would lend support to the equity markets and weaken the USD.  Note the ranges have already been stretched today so smaller positions on trades would be sound thinking and money management.

 

Nikkei rallied up going into the close and Asian Indexes closed moderately higher.  Strong bulls in early European trading.

 

GBP – The GBP is significantly stronger overnight or you might say the USD is weak.  If equity markets remain bullish today, the USD stands to continue to weaken.  The GBP is the stronger long side choice over the EUR.

 

EUR – The EUR broke through resistance of 1.40 in the overnight trading.  Temper this with not so much a really strong EUR, but rather a really weak USD.

 

CHF – The USD/CHF fell through support and the USD took a good old fashion spanking.

 

JPY – The USD gave back a big part of yesterday’s gains on a retracement and overall bearishness on the USD. The pair is looking for support above 95.50, and this pair (unlike others) could reverse back for USD strength with bullishness in the markets.  This pair remains risky for trade today, and you may favor other pairs.

 

EUR/GBP – Some EUR weakness as we retrace some of the recovery gains yesterday.  Supportive data from the UK overnight for the GBP as the HPI had surprise gains.

 

NOTE: Our commodity based currencies are running strong with the weaker USD as it takes more “weak” USD to purchase a commodity.  The US Fed and the current administration will not attempt to get in the way of a weaker USD at this time.  Yes, we lose buying power as we travel outside the US, but we gain an advantage in exports as the exchange values provide value for other nations seeking goods and services from the US.

 

Gold prices are on the rise as a hedge against inflation and this also supports the commodity currencies.

 

CAD – OIL! Diminished reserves and market optimism are carrying oil prices higher providing CAD strength.  Once again the USD fell through support last night as this pair continues to creep towards 1 to 1 parity.

 

AUD – POW!  I feel like an episode of Batman this morning. Higher highs and Higher lows as the AUD and all commodity based currencies are running.

 

NZD – Today’s theme is USD weakness. Nice break above resist on the 180 chart.

 

 

 

 

USD News – Prelim GDP and Chicago PMI

 

STRONG

 

No short           GBP/USD        1.6100 support

No short           EUR/USD        1.4050 support

No long            USD/CAD       1.1100 support

 

WEAK

 

Long                GBP/USD        1.6300

Long                EUR/USD        1.4300

Short                USD/CHF        1.07**

Short                USD/CAD       1.0820

Long                AUD/USD       .8000***

 

** Significant support

*** Significant resist

 

 

Today’s T Chart is slanted towards USD weakness as the USD is weak across the boards this morning, and stands to weaken further should the equity markets continue with a bullish run.  Better than expected GDP numbers would help lift the equity markets and weaken the USD.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Support and Resistance AM

 

 

Pair              Support                  Resistance           Morning Trend

 

GBP/USD      1.5875 /1.5775       1.6000 /1.6040       Flat

 

EUR/USD      1.3820 / 1.3750      1.3990/ 1.4000       Strong

 

USD/CHF      1.0830 / 1.0810      1.0935 / 1.0970      Weak

 

USD/JPY       96.50 / 95.50                   97.05 /97.50          Strong fading

 

USD/CAD     1.1100 / 1.0820      1.1260 / 1.1360     Flat

 

AUD/USD     0.7755 / 0.7700      0.7860 / 0.7890      Strong

 

NZD/USD      0.6120 / 0.6020      0.6275 / 0.6300      Strong

 

EUR/GBP      0.8665 / 0.8640      0.8750 / 0.8785      Strong

 

10:30 ET on Thursday Morning – Dhigbee

 

Morning Edge Chart of the Day is the Short Term Chart for the USD/JPY with a strong long side bounce.

 

Disappointing New Home Sales reversed the markets turning the day bearish, but not too bearish so far.

 

GBP – The GBP is trading sideways.

 

EUR – The EUR is showing some recovery but is locked in between 1.37 and 1.40.

 

CHF – The USD/CHF is still locked to a range, again.  Data out last night was supportive of the CHF.

 

JPY – OUCH! The Yen got whacked last night. Be careful as the ranges have pushed through daily ATR.

 

CAD – USD/CAD moved higher with the bears in yesterday’s market, but higher crude prices.

 

AUD – Stronger today, but pulling back with markets.

 

NZD – Ditto to above.

 

 

 

 

USD

 

STRONG – bear equity markets

 

Short* GBP/USD 1.5850

Short* EUR/USD 1.3800

 

Weak – bull equity markets

 

Long GBP/USD 1.6000

Long EUR/USD 1.3950

Long NZD/USD .6265***

Long AUD/USD .7900

 

Long USD/JPY 98.00

 

Short* = selling against prevailing trend

*** = Significant resistance level, need to clear for breakout.

Eye on Exotics Thursday 05.28.2009

 

This morning we have our eye on the NZD/JPY as they released a budget designed to curb debt which provided an upgrade from S&P on their AA – plus bond rating from negative to stable allowing the NZD to strengthen even in light of bearish markets overnight.

 

This new found strength has also allowed the NZD to break resistance for the NZD/JPY pair.

 

With news from the US this morning expected to be favorable to the markets, we could see continued gains for the NZD today if the data does not disappoint.

 

New Zealand still faces some long term challenges projected into 2011, but the markets like the budget plan, and if the equity bulls make a run on the US trading session this will provide continued support for the higher interest NZD.

 

Let’s take a look at the charts to see where we are, and where the NZD/JPY has room to continue its ascent.

 

US Index futures continue to hold onto gains this morning, so let’s see if the Equity Market bulls can make our day for the NZD.

USD News

 

STRONG

 

Short* EUR/USD 1.3860*

Long* USD/CHF 1.0926

 

WEAK

 

Long GBP/USD 1.6100

Long EUR/USD 1.4050

Short USD/CHF 1.0800*

 

Note: The values presented in the T-Chart represent the next major area of Support or Resistance, and the opportunities may be to these levels, or may provide additional trading opportunities on breakout beyond these levels.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Support and Resistance AM

 

 

Pair              Support                  Resistance           Morning Trend

 

GBP/USD      1.5920 /1.5775       1.6040 /1.6100       Flat

 

EUR/USD      1.3890 / 1.3750      1.3990/ 1.4000       Weak

 

USD/CHF      1.0830 / 1.0810      1.0890 / 1.0930      Strong

 

USD/JPY       94.50 / 93.90          95.50 /96.00          Strong fading

 

USD/CAD     1.1100 / 1.0820      1.1190 / 1.1220     Flat

 

AUD/USD     0.7800 / 0.7700      0.7845 / 0.7890      Weak

 

NZD/USD      0.6090 / 0.6020      0.6200 / 0.6240      Weak

 

EUR/GBP      0.8695 / 0.8640      0.8750 / 0.8785      Weak

 

08:30 ET on Wednesday Morning – Dhigbee

 

Morning Edge Chart of the Day is the Short Term Chart for the GBP/CHF trading at resistance.

 

US Index Futures struggled to have any gain last night, even in the face of some follow through on yesterday’s gains in the markets and an up turn in the Asian Markets, and modest gains in early European trading.

 

GBP – The GBP is giving back some of the overnight gains as the indices move a little lower going into the open bell.  We broke 1.6000 overnight, but have retreated back below these levels on a pull back.

 

EUR – The EUR is much less robust than the GBP as evidenced on the EUR/GBP charts, but also with strong selling pressure overnight in relation to the USD.  A break below yesterday’s low of 1.3860 would be bearish for the EUR.

 

CHF – The USD/CHF is still locked to a range, but bearishness in the markets could help the USD advance.

 

JPY – A little JPY strength creeping back in as market sentiment points to some bearishness ahead of the open.

 

CAD – OIL prices are pulling back now, but strong overnight, allowing the CAD to strengthen.  The CAD could weaken if the bears rule the day and oil retreats with equities.

 

AUD – The AUD has had a tremendous long side run, but is fading and we have key data tonight that will indicate if the Australian economy is strengthening or still has challenges ahead.

 

NZD – The NZD gave back yesterday’s gains and looks weaker this morning.  This trend will continue if the bears rule today, and we may be ripe for a pull back as recent gains have come on the back of light overall trading, in other words, the equity investors may be a little more optimistic in view, but not enough to go all in, and this could spell reversal or pull back on an adjustment.

Key economic report released tonight during the Asian session.

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Support and Resistance AM

 

 

Pair              Support                  Resistance           Morning Trend

 

GBP/USD      1.5750 /1.5515       1.5650 /1.5700       Weak

 

EUR/USD      1.3860 / 1.3750      1.4000/ 1.4050       Weak

 

USD/CHF      1.0840 / 1.0810      1.0930 / 1.0980      Strong

 

USD/JPY       94.50 / 93.90                   95.15 /95.50          Flat

 

USD/CAD     1.1220 / 1.1185      1.1355 / 1.1480      Strong

 

AUD/USD     0.7700 / 0.7670      0.7825 / 0.7865      Weak

 

NZD/USD      0.6090 / 0.6020      0.6200 / 0.6240      Weak

 

EUR/GBP      0.8755 / 0.8700      0.8805 / 0.8830      Weak

 

08:30 ET on Tuesday Morning – Dhigbee

Eye on Exotics Tuesday 05262009

 

This morning we have our eye on the GBP/AUD pair as the bearish turn to the early European trading and the US Index Futures pointing lower as we move towards the open bell this morning are weighing heavily on the AUD and allowing the GBP to find new highs on the Short Term Chart.

 

So what is weighing so heavy on the AUD this morning?  For starters we have North Korea adding a little political uncertainty to the markets by launching short range missiles.  This adds to growing concerns that higher oil prices could hamstring recovering economies, and the bearish turn to the markets are allowing the USD to strengthen which lowers commodity prices and weakens the commodity based currencies.

 

Oil prices are also retreating this morning, adding additional selling pressure to the AUD, NZD, and the CAD.

 

Let’s take a look at the charts for the GBP/AUD this morning where we will see strong day trends already underway, but a daily ATR that shows we still have room for additional GBP advances.

 

Note: To continue this advance for the GBP in relation to the AUD we need to see the selling pressure continue in the equity markets, and a stronger USD driving commodity prices lower during the day.

USD News – Consumer Confidence

 

STRONG

 

Short* EUR/USD 1.3750*

Short* GBP/USD 1.5750

Short* AUD/USD .7670

 

WEAK

 

Long GBP/USD 1.5950*

Long AUD/USD .7860

 

NOTE: Good numbers for Consumer Confidence, good for the equity markets, bad for the USD.  Weak Consumer Confidence, bad for the equity markets, good for the USD.