Traders,
This week had some disappointing action with most pairs unable to reach their DAILY ATR. The AUD was on most of our watch lists with two promising news items that could have pushed its related currency pairs to new highs or lows if forecasts were exceeded or simply met. Instead, AUD Home Loans missed their mark on Tuesday and Employment numbers fell below their forecast on Wednesday. Still with a 5.3% unemployment rate and an economy that is stabilizing ahead of other metropolis nations the AUD/USD was able to climb 300 PIPs over the last week.
The majority of inactivity can be blamed on counter-trend trading possibly a sign of profit taking from swing and position traders closing USD, EUR, and JPY related pairs. When rates are moving against the monthly trend most daily ranges or short lived. Fortunately the cure may be no more than a weekend away. Monday the USD releases the Treasury International Capital (TIC) numbers representing the Net Foreign Purchases of Long-Term Securities. This is followed by our scheduled FOMC statement on Wednesday afternoon. This should be more than enough to resume the dominant 30 day trend of these pairs.
CHART TO WATCH…
EUR/USD (DAY Chart) has both a CCI that indicates an over-bought position and the Fib Retracement grid that identifies 1.3800 as a potential pivot point (reached today). This could be good news for active, swing and position traders alike.
REMEMBER TO SET YOUR CLOCKS FORWARD THIS WEEKEND!!!
Trade Well,
Mark Maldonado
Forex Trading Coach
mmaldonado@tradingviews.com
USD NEWS –08:30 Empire State Productivity, 09:00 TIC foreign investments.
STRONG
Short GBP/USD 1.5650*
Long USD/JPY 90.10
WEAK
Long* EUR/USD 1.37****
Long* GBP/USD 1.5730*
Short USD/JPY 89.70
Short USD/CAD 1.0400
The values in the T-chart data represent the next levels of significant support or resistance with trade opportunities to these levels, or breakouts beyond these levels. The use of Astrid denotes key sustained support or resistance levels, or counter trend opportunities in the market.
Futures investors are liking the markets today with Gold contracts up $24 and 1114 and Oil trading higher by $1.24 this morning to trade at 75.39. The US Index futures remain higher but are pulling back from overnight highs helped by Banking and Finance. The USDX is a little lower but remains above $80 at $80.21 this morning.
The US dollar moved lower on the CAD but has stablized ahead of Empire State and TIC this morning. The EUR actually found some strength late yesterday and followed through in early overnight trading with stronger markets in Asia and early european trading, but has moved back from highs, but is once again firming up on the USD ahead of the open bell for the US trading session.
Keep an eye on the market bulls today. If the willingness to buy into additional risk in the markets continues today with good news from the New York Fed District (Empire State) and support from foreign investments in the TIC, we would look for some USD weakness, and continued strength in the commodity currencies like the AUD, NZD, and CAD.
NOTE: The USDX has formed a nice double top on the 180 minute interval chart with support at 79.75 to 79.65, a breakdown could push the US Dollar towards 78.85, this would put selling pressure on the USD in the Forex pairs, while allowing physical commodities (Futures) to see price gains with higher Gold and Oil.
USD NEWS –08:30 Weekly New Unemployment claims, markets are looking for the number of new claims to drop.
STRONG
Short EUR/USD 1.3700*
Short GBP/USD 1.5500*
Short AUD/USD .8860
Short NZD/USD .6960
WEAK
Long* EUR/USD 1.3850*
Long* GBP/USD 1.5650*
Long AUD/USD .8900*
The values in the T-chart data represent the next levels of significant support or resistance with trade opportunities to these levels, or breakouts beyond these levels. The use of Astrid denotes key sustained support or resistance levels, or counter trend opportunities in the market.
USD NEWS –08:30 Trade Balance may be delayed due to weather.
STRONG
Short EUR/USD 1.3730
Short GBP/USD 1.5585
Long USD/CHF 1.0670
Short AUD/USD .8730
Short NZD/USD .6920
WEAK
Long* EUR/USD 1.3850***
Short USD/CHF 1.0600***
Long AUD/USD .8800
none NZD/USD .6970****
The values in the T-chart data represent the next levels of significant support or resistance with trade opportunities to these levels, or breakouts beyond these levels. The use of Astrid denotes key sustained support or resistance levels, or counter trend opportunities in the market.
With the influx of unscheduled news today (bailing out Greece 2/9/2010), it really helps us figure out what kind of trader we are. Are you an aggressive or conservative trader? Chances are if you loved trading the spikes today, you are an aggressive trader. Conversely, if you saw risk everywhere, chances are you are a conservative trader. Now trade consistently as an aggressive trader or consistently as a conservative trader! Both make PIPs, just in completely different ways!
Learn how to trade more consistently with the "Trade with Me" hosted by myself, Mark Schumacher.
http://www.wizetrade.com/Community/content/TradeWithMeWebinars.aspx?a=anonymous#Mark_Schumacher
Good trading!
Mark Schumacher
USD NEWS – 10:00 Low Impact Eco Opt and Wholesale Inventories, Markets are turning bullish putting some pressure on the USD. Careful if going long the USD.
STRONG
Short EUR/USD 1.3700
Short GBP/USD 1.5550***
Long USD/CAD 1.0750
WEAK
Long* EUR/USD 1.3850
Long GBP/USD 1.5660
Long AUD/USD .8740*
Long NZD/USD .6930*
Short USD/CAD 1.0675
The values in the T-chart data represent the next levels of significant support or resistance with trade opportunities to these levels, or breakouts beyond these levels. The use of Astrid denotes key sustained support or resistance levels, or counter trend opportunities in the market.
US Index Futures are just a little bearish as we move towards the open bell this morning. The data calendar for the week is quiet until Wednesday morning when the Bank of England will release their inflation report. We do have earnings this week, and after last year, everything seems to look better by comparison, so this could encourage some bullishness in the equity markets that might create a pull back against the recent USD Strength, but watch for the breakouts from the narrow ranges established overnight.
The G7 conference concluded with an agreement to keep stimulus in the markets for now, and the Euro zone was given the go ahead to work towards resolution of financial crisis in Greece, not to overlook housing in Spain and other challenges in Portugal. The market reaction to all the goings on at the G7, not much of anything, which is better than having the bears run wild had exit strategies from stimulus been more vigorously discussed.
Watch the equity markets for the next couple of days for clues on Forex trends.
